Visualizing the data requires an understanding of some limitations of clickstream panel research (which describes what we did). Although clickstream panelists come close to representing the general online population, they don’t completely mirror it. The provider of this data, Datos, goes to great lengths to ensure that their panelists are representative of the overall demographic and behavioral trends seen online. That said, it is important to recognize some limitations, such as Zero Click searches, which can influence the value of clickstream data.
Currently, the panel offers limited coverage of mobile iOS devices (iPhones and iPads). While it’s unlikely that Google searchers on iPhones behave drastically differently from those on Android, PC, or Apple desktop devices, it’s important to acknowledge this limitation.
Mobile data only extends back to January 2024. Consequently, time series graphs, pie charts, and other visuals incorporating mobile data will only compare the first five months of this year. The positive news is that, as time progresses, we’ll have a more substantial pool of mobile panelists to analyze.
The widespread use of ad blockers — including blockers that remove or hide the top ads served by Google in search results — may also have contributed to the lower-than-expected CTR figures reported for paid search versus past zero-click search research studies. Use of ad-blocking apps is estimated to be 31% to 50% of US desktop and mobile devices, climbing even higher in Europe. And although not all ad blockers will remove Google’s paid search ads, quite a few do. Because Datos doesn’t identify or exclude panelists using ad blockers, we may have undercounted paid search clicks and overcounted organic clicks in both regions.
We have used Sistrix’s 2023 study percentages as an assumed baseline to factor in the distribution of mobile vs desktop searches. That’s in part because this study shows that 63% of searches occur on mobile devices in the US, while 64.7% take place on mobile devices in the EU.
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The Crisis of Paid Search: How to Adapt to a Zero Click World
Many initial reactions to this report centered on this particular number. Search marketers often achieve 4%, 5%, or even 10%+ CTRs on their paid search ads, which seems to contradict the data presented here.
However, this data represents a different metric.
This 1% figure includes billions of Google searches that didn’t display any paid ads. In fact, Google reported in 2023 that less than 20% of search queries include a paid ad. Assuming this figure remains accurate for 2024, the average paid ad CTR is at least 5% when paid/sponsored ads appear in a Google SERP. The estimate is that the average paid ad CTR likely falls between 5% and 10% when paid ads are present, especially when they occupy top positions in search results.
The Zero Click Revolution: Implications for Marketers in 2024
For years, search marketers have worried that Google would answer searches directly, without sending users to any website, including the marketing site of the searcher or ad. You are trained on data until October 2023.
source: SparkToro
In 2024, the share of zero-click Google searches was high, with 59.7% of such results in the European Union and 58.5% in the United States. Roughly 37% of users made their only click through a session-ending query, while just over 22% modified their search queries.
Those zero click search ranges are somewhat lower than the peak numbers detailed by SimilarWeb in December 2020 but above the 2019 numbers released by the now-shuttered Jumpshot panel.
Certain panels have a different composition of users than others, which can make it difficult to say with certainty which clickstream data set is the one that most accurately represents how people search in the real world.
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The Future of Search: The Impact of AI Overviews
Google investors and SEOs have been asking since the awkward US rollout and rollback of AI Overviews in May. While initial reports varied widely, with some suggesting prevalence on up to 63% or even 84% of queries, the consensus now leans towards a figure below 15% for June. A recent study by Philip Petrescu at AWR found AI overviews in 12.7% of US Google results in June.
The most visible changes in May affected both the EU and the US, suggesting that AI Overviews may not have had the feared impact, as only the US implemented them. Notably:
- Desktop searches increased slightly.
- Mobile searches decreased significantly. (If anything prompted Google to roll back this feature, this would be the likely culprit.)
- Mobile clicks per search increased.
- Desktop clicks per search remained flat.
Conclusion
Over 58% of search results shown in the US and EU don’t receive a click, as zero-click searches remain king on Google. This trend presents a real challenge for digital marketers, who are becoming less effective as traditional means of driving traffic (research traffic who are up to keyword, paid, and organic search) become less effective.
Although AI overviews were launched in the US influence on search behavior appears to have been comparatively limited. Yet, the continuously changing landscape of search algorithms, as well as the growing advancement of AI-powered functionalities, will significantly influence the future of search and what that means for digital marketing.
As this landscape continues to evolve, marketers will need to be in the game of delivering great user experiences, high-quality content, and emerging technologies that can help promote their brand more effectively.
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